Evaluating uncertainty in global wave storm characteristics using CMIP6-derived wave climate simulations with SWAN and WAVEWATCH III models

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Kumar, Rajesh and Amarouche, Khalid and Akpinar, Adem and Kamranzad, Bahareh and Lemos, Gil (2026) Evaluating uncertainty in global wave storm characteristics using CMIP6-derived wave climate simulations with SWAN and WAVEWATCH III models. Global and Planetary Change, 257. 105214. ISSN 0921-8181 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105214)

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Abstract

This study evaluates the performance and uncertainties of two third-generation spectral wave models, SWAN and WW3, in simulating global wave storm characteristics, including mean and maximum storm wave heights, storm duration, and storm power. The models were forced with CMIP6-derived EC-Earth3 wind and sea ice data for 1984–2014 and validated against ERA5 reanalysis and in-situ buoy observations. Results show that SWAN model consistently underestimates storm wave height, particularly in tropical and high-energy regions, whereas WW3 aligns more closely with ERA5 but tends to overestimate storm wave heights and storm power in the Southern Ocean. Both models reproduce storm durations reasonably well, although WW3 exhibits fewer significant biases and narrower confidence intervals, reflecting higher reliability. Storm power analysis reveals SWAN's systematic underestimation and WW3's better overall performance, albeit with localized overestimations in extreme-energy basins. Comparisons with buoy data confirm WW3's improved accuracy in estimating storm durations and power, though challenges remain in replicating extreme wave heights. These findings underscore the inter-model uncertainty associated with different wave models and emphasize the need for refined wave model physics and regional calibration to improve the reliability of global wave-storm projections and better inform coastal planning and climate adaptation.

ORCID iDs

Kumar, Rajesh, Amarouche, Khalid, Akpinar, Adem, Kamranzad, Bahareh ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8829-6007 and Lemos, Gil;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)