The myth of compensatory effects : how party organisation shapes women's representation in dual-candidacy mixed electoral systems

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Brandenburg, Heinz and Lühiste, Maarja (2026) The myth of compensatory effects : how party organisation shapes women's representation in dual-candidacy mixed electoral systems. Electoral Studies, 100. 103057. ISSN 0261-3794 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103057)

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Abstract

Electoral systems are widely recognised as important institutional determinants explaining women's political representation. Mixed-member proportional (MMP) systems, for example, are expected to enhance women's representation by combining single-member districts with PR lists, with the latter compensating for barriers women traditionally face in constituency contests. This article challenges the underlying assumption that candidate selection in MMP's two tiers operates independently, arguing instead that decentralised candidate selection makes most MMP systems function more like pure single-member district (SMD) systems than proportional representation (PR) systems. Using Germany as a case study, and utilising a unique custom-built dataset spanning 13 election cycles from 1976 to 2025, we find that decentralised candidate selection creates strong linkages across both tiers. Constituency nomination appears as an almost necessary pre-condition to get elected via the list-PR tier, meaning that barriers to women's candidacy in single-member districts carry over also to the supposedly more favourable PR component. This interconnection undermines the compensatory logic of MMP design for women's representation. We find that local selectors in Germany's largely decentralised system remain reluctant to nominate women in rural areas, safe seats and right-wing parties, while prior female candidacy in the constituency increases women's chances to secure a nomination. The evidence thus suggests that where candidate selection remains decentralised, even mixed electoral system cannot overcome local party elites' resistance to female candidates.

ORCID iDs

Brandenburg, Heinz ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2670-4706 and Lühiste, Maarja;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)