How Far Away is the UK from Fiscal Sustainability?

Sousa, João (2026) How Far Away is the UK from Fiscal Sustainability? Fraser of Allander Institute, Glasgow.

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Abstract

If you have been anywhere near the discussions about UK fiscal sustainability, the numbers look grim. Ever since the OBR first published its long-term projections in 2011, it has been clear that the ageing of the population – despite being obviously welcome news – will put significant pressure on the public finances. Health spending in particular is likely to drive spending up considerably, and without further increases in revenues, successive deficits would build up debt at an exponential and unsustainable rate. The OBR’s latest projections have debt growing to over 270% of GDP.

ORCID iDs

Sousa, João ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9842-3870

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• Item metadata

  Item type:	Report
  ID code:	95300
  Dates:	Date Event 6 January 2026 Published
  Subjects:	Social Sciences > Public Finance
  Department:	Strathclyde Business School > Economics Strathclyde Business School > Fraser of Allander Institute
  Depositing user:	Pure Administrator
  Date deposited:	14 Jan 2026 15:52
  Last modified:	22 Jan 2026 11:04
  URI:	https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/95300