Quantification and forecasting of reserve capacity from electric trains

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Nakiganda, Agnes and Lindahl, Martin and Henderson, Callum and Egea-Àlvarez, Agustí and Herre, Lars (2026) Quantification and forecasting of reserve capacity from electric trains. eTransportation, 27. 100524. ISSN 2590-1168 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.etran.2025.100524)

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Abstract

This paper explores the quantification and forecasting of reserve capacity from electric trains for participation in power system ancillary service markets. We first map train electricity consumption—traction and non-traction—to suitable reserve products, considering operational and regulatory constraints. Using historical data from the Danish railway operator DSB, we estimate the available flexibility for frequency containment reserves, focusing on controllable non-traction loads such as heating and air conditioning. To support market participation, we develop a low-resolution stochastic forecasting model based on conformal prediction, capable of estimating reserve availability for both day-ahead and hour-ahead horizons. Results show that a fleet of approximately 60 active trains can provide up to 10MW of downward regulation and 1.5MW of upward regulation from non-traction loads. Additionally, traction power from 25 trains can provide up to 5MW of upward reserve in certain time periods. The findings demonstrate a viable pathway for integrating electric trains into flexibility markets, offering new revenue opportunities for operators and enhancing grid stability.

ORCID iDs

Nakiganda, Agnes, Lindahl, Martin, Henderson, Callum, Egea-Àlvarez, Agustí ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1286-6699 and Herre, Lars;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)