Data-driven and scenario-based risk and reliability assessment framework : a case study for hydrogen bunkering

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Choi, Yoon and Jeong, Byongug (2026) Data-driven and scenario-based risk and reliability assessment framework : a case study for hydrogen bunkering. Ocean Engineering, 343 (Part 2). 123303. ISSN 0029-8018 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2025.123303)

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Abstract

This paper introduces a Data-driven and Scenario-based Risk and Reliability Assessment Framework (DS-RAF) for enhancing the safety of maritime alternative fuels and technologies. The framework combines qualitative and quantitative methods and is demonstrated through a case study on a hydrogen bunkering system across its operational lifespan. An in-house system failure database was developed to support comprehensive risk and reliability assessments. To overcome the limitations of static Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), a dynamic FMEA (D-FMEA) was applied, incorporating time-dependent component reliability. This enabled the identification of critical components, P&ID-based design improvements, and optimized replacement intervals. Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis (D-FTA) was further employed to capture sequential and functional dependencies among failures, providing system-level reliability insights. Additionally, scenario-based reliability analysis (S-BRA) using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) evaluated the impact of varying failure rates under different operating conditions. Results showed that the original design of the bunkering system degraded to around 50 % reliability after 1000 h. With optimized replacement strategies identified through D-FMEA and D-FTA, the improved configuration maintained around 70 % reliability over 10,000 h. The proposed framework offers a robust, multi-layered, and data-driven approach that enhances accuracy, reduces uncertainty, and supports proactive design and maintenance strategies, advancing the safe adoption of maritime decarbonization initiatives, including hydrogen solutions.

ORCID iDs

Choi, Yoon ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4911-6631 and Jeong, Byongug ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8509-5824;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)