Modelling sustainability of passenger fleet transition : Assessment of policy and environmental outcomes

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Aba, Michael M. and Picanco Rodrigues, Vinicius and Wong, Andy TC and Sauer, Ildo Luís and Gonçalves, Paulo (2026) Modelling sustainability of passenger fleet transition : Assessment of policy and environmental outcomes. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 152. 105152. ISSN 1879-2340 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.105152)

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Abstract

Being at the forefront of the global electric vehicle (EV) revolution with an amazing 96% of new electric car sales in 2024, it remains questionable if Norway can sustain this momentum over the long term. This study uses a system dynamics model to examine the key drivers of Norway's transition to a zero-emission fleet, focusing on consumer behaviour, policy impacts, and energy-environmental outcomes. A key innovation is the integration of Hofstede's cultural dimensions into the modeling of consumer behavior—an aspect overlooked in previous studies. Findings highlight the importance of vehicle range, affordability, and charging infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis emphasises the role of policy timing, infrastructure, and social influence in market dynamics. Scenario analysis predicts 97% EV sales by 2025 under current policies, with emissions declining by 59% by 2050. The study underscores the need for sustained incentives in the short term, infrastructure expansion, and technological innovation, offering insights for policymakers.

ORCID iDs

Aba, Michael M., Picanco Rodrigues, Vinicius ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6647-9291, Wong, Andy TC ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8942-1984, Sauer, Ildo Luís and Gonçalves, Paulo;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)