Rethinking Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFW) for multi-risks

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Lumbroso, Darren and White, Christopher J. and Brown, Emma and Kolusu, Seshagiri Rao (2025) Rethinking Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFW) for multi-risks. npj Natural Hazards, 2. 105. ISSN 2948-2100 (https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00157-5)

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Abstract

Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFWs) are crucial for disaster risk reduction; however, most systems focus on single hazards, overlooking the complex interactions of multi-risk events. This siloed approach can underestimate impacts, especially when hazards occur simultaneously or sequentially. Developing multi-risk IbFW systems requires interdisciplinary collaboration, improved modelling, more impact data and clearer terminology. Analysis of historical disasters shows that multi-hazard events cause disproportionate economic losses. Advancing IbFW systems demands pragmatic innovation, robust datasets, and inclusive strategies to better reflect real-world hazard complexity.

ORCID iDs

Lumbroso, Darren, White, Christopher J. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1791-4784, Brown, Emma and Kolusu, Seshagiri Rao;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)