The Aerial Bombing of Cambodia and the Recovery of Communities

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Lenhart, Otto and Norris, Jonathan and Ta, Thi Tham (2025) The Aerial Bombing of Cambodia and the Recovery of Communities. Discussion paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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Abstract

We study how local areas in Cambodia are still shaped by past exposure to US bombing decades ago, leading to divergent patterns in health and economic development. Using a wide range of geo-coded data and a spatial regression discontinuity adapted to many boundaries, we find that the long-term impacts of past bombings vary significantly by location dependent on whether they persist as unexploded ordnance (UXO). In areas of hard ground, bombs are more likely to detonate leaving destruction but no lingering risk, while in soft ground, bombs fail more frequently leaving UXO. We confirm this pattern using data on casualties from explosive remnants of war, and we then show this difference gives rise to a diverging pattern in health and economic development. In bombed, hard ground locations that are free from the dangers of UXO, investments in economic activities and healthcare infrastructure have even improved outcomes post-conflict. However, in areas where UXO remains a threat, development has been hindered, and negative consequences are persistent. Overall, our results offer an important lesson that while conflicts can be harmful, the impacts on future generations can be mitigated through investments in the post-conflict era, if remnants of war no longer remain.

ORCID iDs

Lenhart, Otto ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0949-4820, Norris, Jonathan ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9603-8481 and Ta, Thi Tham;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)