Decisive or distracted : the effects of US constraint on security networks

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Choi, Ha Eun and de Marchi, Scott and Gallop, Max and Minhas, Shahryar (2025) Decisive or distracted : the effects of US constraint on security networks. British Journal of Political Science, 55. e169. ISSN 1469-2112 (https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123425101026)

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Abstract

The rise of China as a global power has been a prominent feature in international politics. Simultaneously, the United States has been engaged in ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia for the past two decades, requiring a significant commitment of resources, focus, and determination. This paper investigates how third-party countries react to the United States’ preoccupation with these conflicts, particularly in terms of diplomatic co-operation and alignment. We introduce a measure of US distraction and utilize network-based indicators to assess diplomatic co-operation or alignment. Our study tests the hypothesis that when the US is distracted, other states are more likely to co-operate with its principal rival, China. Our findings support this hypothesis, revealing that increased co-operation with China is more probable during periods of US distraction. However, a closer examination of state responses shows that democracies distance themselves from China under these circumstances, while non-democracies move closer.

ORCID iDs

Choi, Ha Eun, de Marchi, Scott, Gallop, Max ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6352-4301 and Minhas, Shahryar;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)