Net-zero pathways and the future of GB electricity transmission networks

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Cao, Shengming and Bukhsh, Waqquas and He, Runsheng (2025) Net-zero pathways and the future of GB electricity transmission networks. In: 9th International Conference on Environment Friendly Energies and Applications, 2025-12-04 - 2025-12-05.

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Abstract

The UK government set a legally binding net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target aiming for a fully decarbonized energy system by 2050. Achieving this will require major reforms in the electricity market. However, a clear, officially recognized pathway to decarbonization is yet to be provided. Several research organizations including the Energy Systems Catapult, National Energy System Operator, Centre for Alternative Technology, and Climate Change Committee have proposed decarbonization pathways. While these pathways differ in their assumptions and approaches, they all anticipate a significant increase in both electricity demand and renewable generation. Across these scenarios, electricity generation is projected to rise by 51%–160% by 2050, creating both opportunities and challenges for the GB's power transmission network. In this study, we employ a modeling framework to examine the potential impacts of these decarbonization policies on the Great Britain electricity transmission system up to the 2050. We identify likely congestion points and critical transmission lines under the predicted load and generation growth across all seven pathways, providing insights to support planning for a resilient and low-carbon electricity network.

ORCID iDs

Cao, Shengming ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6623-0843, Bukhsh, Waqquas ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5765-0747 and He, Runsheng ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7974-4788;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)