Using a systems thinking approach to assess the complex interplay between sustainable development goals, climate change, and humanitarian operations

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Bravo, Raissa Zurli Bittencourt and Cunha, Luiza Ribeiro Alves and Cardoso, Brenda and Sarges, Beatriz and Barros, Cristiano and Rodrigues, Vinicius and Leiras, Adriana (2026) Using a systems thinking approach to assess the complex interplay between sustainable development goals, climate change, and humanitarian operations. Sustainability Science, 21 (1). pp. 95-120. ISSN 1862-4057 (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-025-01727-2)

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Abstract

Climate change consequences, such as severe droughts, water shortages, wildfires, rising sea levels, floods, polar ice melt, catastrophic storms, and biodiversity loss, significantly impact the achievement of the SDGs. These adverse effects exacerbate the frequency and magnitude of disasters, thereby increasing the need for effective HOs and disaster management policies. HOs are essential for balancing short-term emergency responses with long-term economic and social development interventions. Considering this context, we develop a systems thinking approach to identify key interconnections and intervention points at the intersection of climate change (CC), the sustainable development goals (SDGs), and humanitarian operations (HOs), using a systematic literature review (SLR) and causal loop diagrams (CLDs). These diagrams provide a visual representation of how different variables interact, allowing for a deeper understanding of where interventions can be most effective. This holistic approach is crucial for achieving the long-term goals of resilience and sustainability in the face of growing climate challenges. Additionally, we use heat maps to depict the intensity and distribution of relationships across different variables. Key findings highlight the need for innovative policies that integrate nature-based solutions and advanced climate data analytics to strengthen disaster preparedness and response. For example, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stands out as a strategic leverage point that simultaneously contributes to climate change mitigation, disaster risk reduction, and progress across multiple SDGs. Moreover, the findings underscore the importance of advancing carbon sequestration techniques to mitigate climate change impacts effectively. Addressing these research gaps can contribute to developing more effective strategies for managing climate risks and promoting sustainable development.

ORCID iDs

Bravo, Raissa Zurli Bittencourt, Cunha, Luiza Ribeiro Alves, Cardoso, Brenda, Sarges, Beatriz, Barros, Cristiano, Rodrigues, Vinicius ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6647-9291 and Leiras, Adriana;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)