Data-driven early warning of power system oscillations in Great Britain

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Kawal, Kevin and Hong, Qiteng and Guo, Si and Dysko, Adam and Stephen, Bruce and Egea-Alvarez, Agusti and Booth, Campbell; (2025) Data-driven early warning of power system oscillations in Great Britain. In: 2025 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting. 2025 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM) . IEEE, USA. ISBN 979-8-3315-0995-8 (https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM52009.2025.11225355)

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Abstract

With the growing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs), oscillation events have increasingly occurred in the power system in Great Britain (GB). This paper presents an analysis of oscillation events that occurred over an 18-month period using actual recordings from a phasor measurement unit (PMU) installed in Scotland. It was found that the recorded oscillations can exhibit different frequency components, durations, and magnitudes. Notably, all analyzed events were preceded by precursory signs in the form of low magnitude (close to noise level) oscillations, manifesting as observable spectral power levels at particular frequencies in the frequency spectrum of phasor measurements. This finding highlights the potential for these precursors to serve as early indicators of oscillatory instability. A supervised learning-based system state classifier, utilizing time-frequency features derived from phasor measurements, is presented, which can successfully detect these precursory signatures. Furthermore, a data-driven early warning system, integrated with domain knowledge, is proposed for enhanced oscillation risk detection, analysis, and mitigation. It is recommended that close industry-research collaboration is required to share oscillation data and insights in order to realize such an early warning system.

ORCID iDs

Kawal, Kevin, Hong, Qiteng ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9122-1981, Guo, Si, Dysko, Adam ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3658-7566, Stephen, Bruce ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7502-8129, Egea-Alvarez, Agusti ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1286-6699 and Booth, Campbell ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3869-4477;
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