Capitals under siege : why some rebel groups achieve victory while others fail

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Uzonyi, Gary (2025) Capitals under siege : why some rebel groups achieve victory while others fail. Comparative Political Studies. pp. 1-24. ISSN 0010-4140 (https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140251381767)

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Abstract

Why do some rebel groups defeat the government while so many others fail? Scholars of civil wars note that rebels must often reach the capital to defeat the government. Yet, history is replete with rebels who have lost the war, despite reaching the capital. I offer a theory of rebel capital approach that helps explain why only some rebels are victorious. Introducing novel data on rebel approaches, and accounting for selection dynamics, I find that groups which lay siege to the capital are more likely to achieve victory than those that either blitz the capital from the periphery or form in the city and attempt to divide the government’s power from within. These findings underscore that both strength and wartime decision making are important to the outcome of war.

ORCID iDs

Uzonyi, Gary ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6006-993X;
  • Item type:Article
    ID code:94176
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    20 September 2025
    Published
    20 September 2025
    Published Online
    12 August 2025
    Accepted
    Subjects:Political Science
    Department:Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences (HaSS)
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:16 Sep 2025 07:56
    Last modified:02 Jun 2026 07:02
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/94176
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