Localized gas equivalent model of electrical heat demand for urban LV distribution network impact analysis

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Anderson, Amy and McGarry, Connor and Galloway, Stuart and Stephen, Bruce and McArthur, Stephen (2025) Localized gas equivalent model of electrical heat demand for urban LV distribution network impact analysis. IEEE Access, 13. pp. 158776-158788. ISSN 2169-3536 (https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2025.3608478)

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Abstract

Understanding the impact of increased domestic heat pump penetration on power distribution networks is key to achieving decarbonization targets. Distribution networks connect domestic and light commercial loads to the wider grid, and operating outside of their design criteria will compromise reliability and may result in outright loss of supply. Owing to the extensive scale of distribution network assets in the form of transformers and underground cable networks, estimates of the remaining available headroom and its erosion through connection of new low carbon technology is unclear. The approach contributed in this paper enables appropriate scaling of electrical heat load, sensitive to local gas-equivalent use, facilitating the assessment of distribution network threats in the absence of monitoring data. Geospatially linked historical fiscal demand data is used as a proxy for detailed physical and behavioral model inputs and impacts are demonstrated experimentally via power flow calculations carried out on models of actual distribution feeders. Measurement of impact was assessed via voltage and thermal violations against statutory limits. This contribution can support distribution network operators in forestalling the localized impacts of various electric heat pump penetration scenarios, reducing potential of overloads, as well as informing optimal reinforcement investment decisions.

ORCID iDs

Anderson, Amy, McGarry, Connor ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7986-835X, Galloway, Stuart ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1978-993X, Stephen, Bruce ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7502-8129 and McArthur, Stephen ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1312-8874;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)