Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of a pollutant dispersion problem

Tools

MacKenzie, J. A. and Ramage, A. and Shahid, T. and Forbes, A. B.; Pavese, Franco and Bosnjakovic, Alen and Eichstadt, Sascha and Forbes, Alistair B and Sousa, Joao Alves, eds. (2025) Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of a pollutant dispersion problem. In: Advanced Mathematical and Computational Tools in Metrology and Testing AMCTM XIII. Series on Advances in Mathematics for Applied Sciences . World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte Ltd, pp. 249-259. ISBN 9789819800681 (https://doi.org/10.1142/9789819800674_0023)

[thumbnail of Uncertainty_Quantification_and_Global_Sensitivity_Analysis_of_a_Pollutant_Dispersion_Problem]
Preview
 Text. Filename: Uncertainty_Quantification_and_Global_Sensitivity_Analysis_of_a_Pollutant_Dispersion_Problem.pdf
Accepted Author Manuscript
License: All rights reserved
Download (481kB)| Preview

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a computational modelling approach to gain some insight into the factors that strongly influence atmospheric pollution concentration and how uncertainties associated with these factors contribute to the uncertainties in pollution estimates. We consider a parametric advection-diffusion pollution dispersion model to estimate pollutant concentration over a spatial domain, given values for a set of model parameters and hyper-parameters. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is conducted to assess how the variability in the pollutant concentration can be attributed to the variability in the model parameters. We use a variance-based GSA technique based on the estimation of first order and total Sobol indices across the spatial domain using Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling. A possible use for the resulting spatial sensitivity maps is in the design of an optimal placement strategy for sensors.

ORCID iDs

MacKenzie, J. A. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4412-7057, Ramage, A. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4709-0691, Shahid, T. and Forbes, A. B.; Pavese, Franco, Bosnjakovic, Alen, Eichstadt, Sascha, Forbes, Alistair B and Sousa, Joao Alves
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)