Gutenberg–Richter B-value time series forecasting : A weighted likelihood approach
Taroni, Matteo and Vocalelli, Giorgio and De Polis, Andrea (2021) Gutenberg–Richter B-value time series forecasting : A weighted likelihood approach. Forecasting, 3 (3). pp. 561-569. (https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3030035)
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Abstract
We introduce a novel approach to estimate the temporal variation of the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg–Richter law, based on the weighted likelihood approach. This methodology allows estimating the b-value based on the full history of the available data, within a data-driven setting. We test this methodology against the classical “rolling window” approach using a high-definition Italian seismic catalogue as well as a global catalogue of high magnitudes. The weighted likelihood approach outperforms competing methods, and measures the optimal amount of past information relevant to the estimation.
ORCID iDs
Taroni, Matteo, Vocalelli, Giorgio and De Polis, Andrea ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0483-2643;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 90233 Dates: DateEvent6 August 2021Published29 July 2021AcceptedSubjects: Science > Mathematics > Analysis Department: Strathclyde Business School > Economics Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 13 Aug 2024 14:53 Last modified: 09 Oct 2024 13:30 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/90233