Effects of task structure and confirmation bias in alternative hypotheses evaluation
Dhami, Mandeep K. and Belton, Ian K. and De Werd, Peter and Hadzhieva, Velichka and Wicke, Lars (2024) Effects of task structure and confirmation bias in alternative hypotheses evaluation. Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications, 9 (1). 37. ISSN 2365-7464 (https://doi.org/10.1186/s41235-024-00560-y)
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Abstract
We empirically examined the effectiveness of how the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique structures task information to help reduce confirmation bias (Study 1) and the portrayal of intelligence analysts as suffering from such bias (Study 2). Study 1 (N = 161) showed that individuals presented with hypotheses in rows and evidence items in columns were significantly less likely to demonstrate confirmation bias, whereas those presented with the ACH-style matrix (with hypotheses in columns and evidence items in rows) or a paragraph of text (listing the evidence for each hypothesis) were not less likely to demonstrate bias. The ACH-style matrix also did not confer any benefits regarding increasing sensitivity to evidence credibility. Study 2 showed that the majority of 62 Dutch military analysts did not suffer from confirmation bias and were sensitive to evidence credibility. Finally, neither judgmental coherence nor cognitive reflection differentiated between better or worse performers in the hypotheses evaluation tasks.
ORCID iDs
Dhami, Mandeep K., Belton, Ian K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2479-6563, De Werd, Peter, Hadzhieva, Velichka and Wicke, Lars;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 89640 Dates: DateEventDecember 2024Published13 June 2024Published Online8 May 2024Accepted23 September 2023SubmittedSubjects: Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > Psychology Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 18 Jun 2024 11:45 Last modified: 09 Oct 2024 00:41 URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/89640