Future variability of wave energy in the Gulf of Oman using a high resolution CMIP6 climate model

Pourali, Mahmoud and Kavianpour, Mohamad Reza and Kamranzad, Bahareh and Alizadeh, Mohamad Javad (2023) Future variability of wave energy in the Gulf of Oman using a high resolution CMIP6 climate model. Energy, 262 (Part B). 125552. ISSN 1873-6785 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125552)

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Abstract

There is a worldwide compromise toward increasing the proportion of renewable energy in future electricity production to mitigate the impacts of greenhouse gases. This study explores the sustainability of wave energy resources in the northern part of the Gulf of Oman, considering the impact of climate change using a Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP5-8.5) representing a high increase in CO2 concentration by 2100. Near-surface wind speed dataset from a high-resolution CNRM (CNRM-CM6-1-HR) global climate model was employed to force a third-generation wave model. A novel statistical bias-correction technique was developed based on Weibull distribution to generate high-resolution input wind for the wave model, and various criteria were employed to assess the sustainability of the wave energy in the study area. Comparing future projections of wave energy under SSP5-8.5 with those of historical simulations demonstrated the sustainability of the wave resources in the study area. The methodology of utilizing multiple criteria assessments, including accessibility, availability, and exploitable storage of wave energy predicts an increase ranging from 21 to 45% in the future wave power under a high emission scenario.

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