A Bayesian network-based probabilistic framework for updating aftershock risk of bridges
Tubaldi, Enrico and Turchetti, Francesca and Ozer, Ekin and Fayaz, Jawad and Gehl, Pierre and Galasso, Carmine (2022) A Bayesian network-based probabilistic framework for updating aftershock risk of bridges. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 51 (10). pp. 2496-2519. ISSN 1096-9845 (https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3698)
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Abstract
The evaluation of a bridge's structural damage state following a seismic event and the decision on whether or not to open it to traffic under the threat of aftershocks (ASs) can significantly benefit from information about the mainshock (MS) earthquake's intensity at the site, the bridge's structural response, and the resulting damage experienced by critical structural components. This paper illustrates a Bayesian network (BN)-based probabilistic framework for updating the AS risk of bridges, allowing integration of such information to reduce the uncertainty in evaluating the risk of bridge failure. Specifically, a BN is developed for describing the probabilistic relationship among various random variables (e.g., earthquake-induced ground-motion intensity, bridge response parameters, seismic damage, etc.) involved in the seismic damage assessment. This configuration allows users to leverage data observations from seismic stations, structural health monitoring (SHM) sensors and visual inspections (VIs). The framework is applied to a hypothetical bridge in Central Italy exposed to earthquake sequences. The uncertainty reduction in the estimate of the AS damage risk is evaluated by utilising various sources of information. It is shown that the information from accelerometers and VIs can significantly impact bridge damage estimates, thus affecting decision-making under the threat of future ASs.
ORCID iDs
Tubaldi, Enrico, Turchetti, Francesca, Ozer, Ekin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7177-0753, Fayaz, Jawad, Gehl, Pierre and Galasso, Carmine;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 80950 Dates: DateEventAugust 2022Published26 June 2022Published Online26 May 2022AcceptedSubjects: Technology > Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) > Environmental engineering Department: Faculty of Engineering > Civil and Environmental Engineering Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 06 Jun 2022 13:56 Last modified: 24 Sep 2024 17:45 URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/80950