Scotland's Budget Report 2020

Fraser of Allander Institute; Eiser, David and Congreve, Emma. (2020) Scotland's Budget Report 2020. [Report]

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Recent positive news on vaccine development raises expectations that 2021/22 will herald the beginnings of a recovery from both the health and economic shocks caused by Covid in 2020. But the precise path of that recovery remains very uncertain. It will depend on the pace of the vaccination programme, the effectiveness of the vaccine and test-and-trace programmes in containing the virus, and the pace at which health restrictions can be lifted as a result. As well as the pace at which restrictions can be lifted, the outlook for the economy will depend on the degree of structural damage wrought by the crisis, and the extent to which households unwind significant savings increases during 2020.