Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [December 2020]

Fraser of Allander Institute; Black, James and Brocek, Frantisek and Cooper, Benjamin and Eiser, David and Kane, Kevin and McGeoch, Adam and McIntyre, Stuart and Spowage, Mairi. Roy, Graeme, ed. (2020) Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [December 2020]. [Report]

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    Abstract

    There is finally a light on the horizon, and many of us can now imagine a world without the restrictions we are operating under. While many parts of the world have re-entered lockdown – or have partially locked down – there is tentative hope for the year to come. As we speak, initial rollouts are beginning of vaccines that will aim to ensure that 2021 will be a better economic year for Scotland than 2020. Despite this welcome news, it will take some time for the country to get to a point where significant restrictions can be eased. This will continue to have a particular heavy toll on key sectors in our economy, such as tourism and hospitality. Moreover, the roll out of a sustained vaccination programme across the world will take many months, meaning that the global outlook – crucial for Scotland's exports and investment prospects – remains hugely challenging. As a result, the ongoing economic crisis remains severe: there is still a hard recovery to come. With unemployment soon to rise, and a renewed squeeze on wages across the public and private sector, it will feel like Scotland is in a recession for some time yet.

    ORCID iDs

    Black, James ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7796-0910, Brocek, Frantisek ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2254-6867, Cooper, Benjamin, Eiser, David, Kane, Kevin, McGeoch, Adam, McIntyre, Stuart ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0640-7544 and Spowage, Mairi; Roy, Graeme