Multi-objective optimisation for tuning building heating and cooling loads forecasting models

Seyedzadeh, Saleh and Pour Rahimian, Farzad and Rastogi, Parag and Oliver, Stephen and Glesk, Ivan and Kumar, Bimal (2019) Multi-objective optimisation for tuning building heating and cooling loads forecasting models. In: 36th CIB W78 2019 Conference, 2019-09-18 - 2019-09-20, Northumbria University.

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    Abstract

    Machine learning (ML) has been recognised as a powerful method for modelling building energy consumption. The capability of ML to provide a fast and accurate prediction of energy loads makes it an ideal tool for decision-making tasks related to sustainable design and retrofit planning. However, the accuracy of these ML models is much dependant on the selection of the right hyper-parameters for specific building dataset. This paper proposes a method for optimising ML model for forecasting both heating and cooling loads. The technique employs multi-objective optimisation with evolutionary algorithms to search the space of possible parameters. The proposed approach not only tune one model to precisely predict building energy loads but also accelerates the process of model optimisation. The study utilises a simulated building energy data generated in EnergyPlus to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, and compares the outcomes with the regular ML tuning procedure (i.e. grid search). The optimised model provides a reliable tool for building designers and engineers to explore a large space of the available building materials and technologies.