Marine accident learning with fuzzy cognitive maps (MALFCMs) and Bayesian networks

Navas de Maya, Beatriz and Babaleye, Ahmed O. and Kurt, Rafet E. (2019) Marine accident learning with fuzzy cognitive maps (MALFCMs) and Bayesian networks. Safety in Extreme Environments. ISSN 2524-8189 (https://doi.org/10.1007/s42797-019-00003-8)

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Abstract

Addressing safety is considered a priority starting from the design stage of any vessel until end-of-life. However, despite all safety measures developed, accidents are still occurring. This is a consequence of the complex nature of shipping accidents where too many factors are involved including human factors. Therefore, there is a need for a practical method, which can identify the importance weightings for each contributing factor involved in accidents. As a result, by identifying the importance weightings for each factor, risk assessments can be informed, and risk control options can be developed and implemented more effectively. To this end, Marine Accident Learning with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (MALFCM) approach incorporated with Bayesian networks (BNs) is suggested and applied in this study. The MALFCM approach is based on the concept and principles of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to represent the interrelations amongst accident contributor factors. Thus, MALFCM allows identifying the importance weightings for each factor involved in an accident, which can serve as prior failure probabilities within BNs. Hence, in this study, a specific accident will be investigated with the proposed MALFCM approach.

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