Marine accident learning with fuzzy cognitive maps (MALFCMs) and Bayesian networks : a case study on maritime accidents

Navas de Maya, Beatriz and Babaleye, Ahmed and Kurt, Rafet Emek (2019) Marine accident learning with fuzzy cognitive maps (MALFCMs) and Bayesian networks : a case study on maritime accidents. In: 4th Workshop and Symposium on Safety and Integrity Management of Operations in Harsh Environments, 2019-07-15 - 2019-07-17.

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    Abstract

    Aiming to improve maritime safety, there is a need for a practical method that is capable of identifying the importance weightings for each contributing factor involved in accidents. Hence, Marine Accident Learning with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (MALFCM) incorporated with Bayesian networks is suggested and applied in this study. MALFCM approach is based on the concept and principles of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to represent the interrelations amongst accident contributor factors. Hence, in this study, grounding/stranding accidents were investigated with the proposed MALFCM approach. As a result, inadequate leadership and supervision, lack of training and unprofessional behavior were identified as the most probable causes of grounding accident. In addition, in the accident scenario analysis, it was observed that the lack of safety culture contributed most to the system failure based on the posterior to prior failures ratio.