Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance with structured expert judgment

Colson, Abigail (2017) Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance with structured expert judgment. In: INFORMS Healthcare 2017, 2017-07-26 - 2017-07-28.

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    Abstract

    Antibiotic resistance is a major global concern. Although many countries collect resistance surveillance data, the large number of factors that influence the emergence and spread of resistance makes it extremely difficult to translate historical data into future predictions. To bridge the gap between existing surveillance data and the needs of decision makers, we use Cooke’s classical model of structured expert judgment to quantify uncertainty about future resistance rates for select pathogen-antibiotic pairs in several European countries.