The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis
Dhami, Mandeep K. and Belton, Ian K. and Mandel, David R. (2019) The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 33 (6). pp. 1080-1090. ISSN 0888-4080 (https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3550)
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Abstract
The intelligence community uses "structured analytic techniques" to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. We examined the use of the analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)—a technique designed to reduce "confirmation bias". Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ACH or not when completing a hypothesis testing task that had probabilistic ground truth. Data on analysts' judgement processes and conclusions were collected using written protocols that were then coded for statistical analyses. We found that ACH-trained analysts did not follow all of the steps of ACH. There was mixed evidence for ACH's ability to reduce confirmation bias, and we observed that ACH may increase judgement inconsistency and error. It may be prudent for the intelligence community to consider the conditions under which ACH would prove useful and to explore alternatives.
ORCID iDs
Dhami, Mandeep K., Belton, Ian K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2479-6563 and Mandel, David R.;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 69049 Dates: DateEvent31 December 2019Published21 March 2019Published Online18 March 2019AcceptedSubjects: Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > Psychology
Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial ManagementDepartment: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 26 Jul 2019 08:57 Last modified: 25 Sep 2024 00:42 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/69049