Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment : a six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process

Belton, Ian and MacDonald, Alice and Wright, George and Hamlin, Iain (2019) Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment : a six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 147. pp. 72-82. ISSN 0040-1625 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.07.002)

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Abstract

This paper provides a practical, systematic approach to the design and delivery of a Delphi survey. We prescribe a sequence of six steps to do with (i) setting up the Delphi process – including selecting respondents and generating a requisite number of focal issues, (ii) software/delivery choice, (iii) developing question items and response scales, (iv) providing feedback between a requisite number of Delphi rounds, (v) preventing and dealing with panellist drop out, and (vi) analysing and presenting the Delphi yield. At each step, the Delphi administrator has a range of choice options and we provide discussion of the pros and cons of each option - in order that the overall design and delivery of a particular Delphi survey is both well-founded and defensible.

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