A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election

Jensen, Christa and Lacombe, Donald and McIntyre, Stuart (2011) A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election. Discussion paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

[img]
Preview
Text (Jensen-etal-2012-A-bayesian-spatial-individual-effects-probit-model-of-the-2010-u.k-general-election)
Jensen_etal_2012_A_bayesian_spatial_individual_effects_probit_model_of_the_2010_u.k_general_election.pdf
Final Published Version

Download (399kB)| Preview

    Abstract

    The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of NorthSouth variations in Conservative Party support.