Modelling the effect of a novel auto-dissemination trap on the spread of dengue in high-rise condominia, Malaysia

Greenhalgh, David and Liang, Yanfeng and Nazni, Wasi Ahmad and Teoh, Guat-ney and Lee, Han Lim and Massad, Eduardo (2018) Modelling the effect of a novel auto-dissemination trap on the spread of dengue in high-rise condominia, Malaysia. Journal of Biological Systems, 26 (4). pp. 553-578. ISSN 0218-3390

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    Abstract

    In this paper, we use the classical Ross-Macdonald model to analyse the effect of the Mosquito Home System (MHS), which is an example of an auto-dissemination trap, in controlling the spread of dengue in Malaysia in a high-rise condominium environment. By using the national dengue data from Malaysia, we are able to estimate which represents the initial growth rate of the dengue epidemic and thus allows us to estimate the number of mosquitoes in Malaysia. The basic reproduction number R0 is also obtained. We have constructed a mathematical expression which allows us to estimate the potential number of breeding sites for Aedes mosquitoes. Later on, by using the data available from the eleven months trials carried out in three blocks of flats in Selangor, we improved on our dengue model by including the effect of the MHS and thus modelling the impact it