Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites

Chiachio, Juan and Chiachio, Manuel and Sankararaman, Shankar and Saxena, Abhinav and Goebel, Kai (2015) Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 142. pp. 134-147. ISSN 0951-8320 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.04.018)

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Abstract

This paper presents a reliability-based prediction methodology to obtain the remaining useful life of composite materials subjected to fatigue degradation. Degradation phenomena such as stiffness reduction and increase in matrix micro-cracks density are sequentially estimated through a Bayesian filtering framework that incorporates information from both multi-scale damage models and damage measurements, that are sequentially collected along the process. A set of damage states are further propagated forward in time by simulating the damage progression using the models in the absence of new damage measurements to estimate the time-dependent reliability of the composite material. As a key contribution, the estimation of the remaining useful life is obtained as a probability from the prediction of the time-dependent reliability, whose validity is formally proven using the axioms of Probability Logic. A case study is presented using multi-scale fatigue damage data from a cross-ply carbon-epoxy laminate.

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