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Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [November 2009]

Fraser of Allander Institute (2009) Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [November 2009]. [Report]

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    Abstract

    Scotland and the UK are lagging behind as the rest of Europe, Japan and the United States start to recove r from recession. The UK remained in recession in the third quarter and it seems likely that will be the outcome for Scotland too. Consumer spending remains weak, which is in part a consequence of the internationally high levels of debt held by UK households before the recession and the impact of falling asset prices and lending restrictions. But in the UK there are a wide range of indicators that can be cited, which suggest that a recovery is now underway. There is a widespread expectation that the UK economy will come out of recession in the fourth quarter of this year exhibiting a small but positive growth rate. The situation in Scotland is more difficult to call.