Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking : cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking

Bryson, Stephanie and Grime, Megan Michelle and Murthy, Adarsh and Wright, George; Kunc, Martin and Malpass, Jonathan and White, Leroy, eds. (2016) Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking : cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. In: Behavioural Operational Research. Palgrave Macmillan, London. ISBN 978-1-137-53551-1

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Abstract

In this chapter, we discuss and analyse the use of scenario interventions in organisations to overcome business-as-usual thinking - by promoting divergence of opinion and subsequent debate about the nature of the future. We shown that cognitive biases at the level of individual participants in a scenario workshop can both help and hinder the progression of scenario thinking and we go on to demonstrate how expert facilitation of the group process can help generate process-gain with the result that individually-held overconfidence is challenged and attenuated.

ORCID iDs

Bryson, Stephanie ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3807-8490, Grime, Megan Michelle ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5114-7219, Murthy, Adarsh ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8881-8418 and Wright, George ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4350-7800; Kunc, Martin, Malpass, Jonathan and White, Leroy
  • Item type:Book Section
    ID code:54983
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    29 June 2016
    Published
    31 October 2015
    Accepted
    Notes:This extract is taken from the author's original manuscript and has not been edited. The definitive, published, version of record is available here: www.palgrave.com
    Keywords:business-as-usual thinking, scenario thinking, group behaviour, facilitation, overconfidence, cognitive biases, organisational inertia, Management. Industrial Management, Strategy and Management
    Subjects:Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management
    Department:Strathclyde Business School > Strategy and Organisation
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:11 Dec 2015 04:30
    Last modified:31 Aug 2022 16:51
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/54983
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