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Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking : cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking

Bryson, Stephanie and Grime, Megan Michelle and Murthy, Adarsh and Wright, George (2016) Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking : cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. In: Behavioural Operational Research. Palgrave McMillan, London. ISBN 978-1-137-53551-1

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    Abstract

    In this chapter, we discuss and analyse the use of scenario interventions in organisations to overcome business-as-usual thinking - by promoting divergence of opinion and subsequent debate about the nature of the future. We shown that cognitive biases at the level of individual participants in a scenario workshop can both help and hinder the progression of scenario thinking and we go on to demonstrate how expert facilitation of the group process can help generate process-gain with the result that individually-held overconfidence is challenged and attenuated.