Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Hyder, Kieran and Rossberg, Axel G. and Allen, J. Icarus and Austen, Melanie C. and Barciela, Rosa M. and Bannister, Hayley J. and Blackwell, Paul G. and Blanchard, Julia L. and Burrows, Michael T. and Defriez, Emma and Dorrington, Tarquin and Edwards, Karen P. and Garcia-Carreras, Bernardo and Heath, Michael R. and Hembury, Deborah J. and Heymans, Johanna J. and Holt, Jason and Houle, Jennifer E. and Jennings, Simon and Mackinson, Steve and Malcolm, Stephen J. and McPike, Ruaraidh and Mee, Laurence and Mills, David K. and Montgomery, Caron and Pearson, Dean and Pinnegar, John K. and Pollicino, Marilena and Popova, Ekaterina E. and Rae, Louise and Rogers, Stuart I. and Speirs, Douglas and Spence, Michael A. and Thorpe, Robert and Turner, R. Kerry and van der Molen, Johan and Yool, Andrew and Paterson, David M. (2015) Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management. Marine Policy, 61. pp. 291-302. ISSN 0308-597X

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    Abstract

    Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy, and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements that can be addressed without further model development were identified including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.