Comparison of the ranges of uncertainty captured in different seismic-hazard studies

Douglas, John and Ulrich, Thomas and Bertil, Didier and Rey, Julien (2014) Comparison of the ranges of uncertainty captured in different seismic-hazard studies. Seismological Research Letters, 85 (5). pp. 977-985. ISSN 1938-2057

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    Abstract

    The inclusion of epistemic uncertainties, generally via logic trees (Kulkarni et al., 1984), within probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessments (PSHAs) is becoming standard for all types of studies (commercial, governmental, or research; site specific, national, regional, or global). Consequently many studies publish expected ground motions for a given annual frequency of exceedance (AFE) or return period derived from the hazard curves for the mean, median, and various fractiles (percentiles).