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Outlook and appraisal [May 1984]

Kirwan, Frank and Buchanan, Bob and Crawford, Robert and Draper, Paul and Harrigan, Frank and Heeley, John and Jenkins, Iain and Love, James and McNicoll, Iain and McGilvray, Jim and McVey, Michael and Midwinter, Arthur and O'Donnell, Noreen and Simpson, David and Stevens, Jim and Walker, Jim (1984) Outlook and appraisal [May 1984]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 9 (4). pp. 1-13. ISSN 0306-7866

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Abstract

This Commentary revises upwards our February assessment of the prospects for growth in the Scottish economy during the current year. The revision reflects several factors. The upturn in Scottish industry last year was both slower and weaker than anticipated, with the result that a greater part of the recovery phase is now likely to occur during the current year rather than in 1983. By contrast, the upturn in export markets other than the rest of the UK has proved stronger than foreseen. In addition, increases in personal tax allowances in the March Budget were almost three times as large as required by simple indexation. This Commentary will also appraise the current health of the world and UK economies.