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Quantification of the influence of climate on predicted and observed cost of energy for offshore wind

Dinwoodie, I. and McMillan, D. and Dalgic, Y. and Lazakis, I. and Revie, M. (2015) Quantification of the influence of climate on predicted and observed cost of energy for offshore wind. In: Renewable energies offshore. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL., pp. 995-1002. ISBN 9781138028715

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Abstract

This paper analyses the degree to which lifetime production and availability figures are subject to variation due to inherent inter annual climate variations. This is achieved by performing operational simulations based on different measurement periods chosen from 10 years of historic wind and wave data in the North Sea, establishing the financial implications this has for the industry. The investigation is carried out using a robust Monte Carlo simulation climate and lifetime operational expenditure model. Significant variations are observed with regards to availability, power production and OPEX costs with OPEX costs varying by 15% above and below the average value when a single year is used for the simulation input. It has also been demonstrated that results with similar availability predictions can have divergent power production and OPEX results. This is explained by the correlations between wind speed, wave height, accessibility and power production. The best practice to minimize uncertainty in cost projections from short term measurement campaigns has been identified.