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The Scottish economy [September 1992]

McFarland, Mark and Ashcroft, Brian and Draper, Paul and Dunlop, Stewart and Leif, Kevin and Love, Jim and Lockyer, Cliff and Malloy, Eleanor and McGregor, Peter and McNicoll, Iain and McRory, Eric and Stevens, Jim and Swales, Kim and Yin, Ya Ping, Fraser of Allander Institute (1992) The Scottish economy [September 1992]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 18 (1). pp. 11-55. ISSN 0306-7866

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Abstract

There are quite significant revisions in the latest index of production and construction for Scotland released recently by the Scottish Office. For example, a fall of 0.2% recorded in the May issue of the official news release in die seasonally adjusted output index for production industries (Division 1 to 4 of the 1980 SIC) in the final quarter last year is now revised to be a rise of 0.2%. The latest news release (11 August) also shows a further decline of 2% in output in the first quarter this year. These revisions have a major impact on our forecasts. Our last forecast was led to point to the wrong directions in both of the above cases. The present forecast is based on the revised official data and National Institute's revised UK output forecast. The latter has been revised down quite substantially from the previous forecast. Our present forecasting period extends to the fourth quarter of 1993.