Picture of boy being examining by doctor at a tuberculosis sanatorium

Understanding our future through Open Access research about our past...

Strathprints makes available scholarly Open Access content by researchers in the Centre for the Social History of Health & Healthcare (CSHHH), based within the School of Humanities, and considered Scotland's leading centre for the history of health and medicine.

Research at CSHHH explores the modern world since 1800 in locations as diverse as the UK, Asia, Africa, North America, and Europe. Areas of specialism include contraception and sexuality; family health and medical services; occupational health and medicine; disability; the history of psychiatry; conflict and warfare; and, drugs, pharmaceuticals and intoxicants.

Explore the Open Access research of the Centre for the Social History of Health and Healthcare. Or explore all of Strathclyde's Open Access research...

Image: Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust. Wellcome Collection - CC-BY.

The Scottish economy [April 1981]

Bell, D.N.F. and Fraser, N. and Hamilton, D. and Harrigan, F. and Jowett, A. and Kirwan, F. and McGilvray, J. and O'Donnell, N. and Orton, I. and Simpson, D. and Tait, E. and Walker, J. and Wingfield, A. (1981) The Scottish economy [April 1981]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 6 (4). pp. 5-26. ISSN 0306-7866

[img]
Preview
PDF (FEC_6_4_1981_Scottish_Economy)
FEC_6_4_1981_Scottish_Economy.pdf
Final Published Version

Download (943kB) | Preview

Abstract

The data analysed in this paper will show that whilst the end of the recession may be approaching, there is no strong evidence of any sustained or substantial recovery. Indeed, as highlighted in the UK section, there is no clear evidence that the mechanisms upon which the government are relying will generate a significant upturn. The UK economy is notoriously unresponsive to price signals, and while one should support governments efforts to increase this sensitivity, historical evidence is at best equivocal on the efficacy of this approach. For example, while the response of manufacturing investment to changes in output is unambiguously positive, the response to changes in the cost of capital is unclear. Indeed the Treasury have been unable to establish a significant relationship between manufacturing investment and capital cost and, in consequence, base their forecasts on the assumption that such a link exists. Further, any positive effects which might stem from a fall in interest rates will be dampened by the considerable spare capacity in the manufacturing sector brought about by the depth of the current recession.