A medium term model for Scotland

McGilvray, James W. (1979) A medium term model for Scotland. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 5 (2). pp. 31-40. ISSN 0306-7866

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Abstract

The model which is outlined in rather general terms in this paper forms the central core of the Fraser Institute's research programme for the next three years. The model itself is an extension and development of research carried out in the Institute over the past four years, and a synthesis of much of the current work being undertaken. Although many of the equations of the model will be estimated econometrically, or will be based on observed data such as input/output tables or occupation-industry matrices, both gaps in data and gaps in our understanding of the determinants of medium and long-term changes in the economy imply a simulation rather than a forecasting model. Nonetheless it is to be hoped that the time paths of the Scottish economy simulated by the model will offer a plausible guide to the actual development of the economy during the next decade and beyond.

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