Review of the quarter's economic trends [July 1978]

Bell, David N. F. and Hart, S. and Kirwan, Frank X. and McGilvray, James W. and Morton, A. J. and Simpson, David R. F. and Wingfield, Alison A., Fraser of Allander Institute (1978) Review of the quarter's economic trends [July 1978]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 4 (1). pp. 1-6. ISSN 0306-7866

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Developments in the early part of this year suggest that in general most countries are likely to experience a further period of sluggish growth. None of the leading forecasting bodies predict a significant improvement in the performance of the major economies. The long awaited recovery in business fixed investment has not materialised except in the United States. The British economy is now expanding at a relatively rapid rate. Provisional estimates suggest that GDP rose by 1% during the first quarter of this year, fuelled largely by a sustained recovery in the volume of consumer expenditure. The tax changes of the April budget will sustain this trend for some time. In this section we examine the most recent batch of economic indicators, and assess the recovery in the light of the government's professed economic strategy. We also present and contrast the latest predictions of the major forecasting organisations.