Modelling the impact of temperature-induced life history plasticity and mate limitation on the epidemic potential of a marine ectoparasite
Groner, Maya L. and Gettinby, George and Stormoen, Marit and Revie, Crawford W. and Cox, Ruth (2014) Modelling the impact of temperature-induced life history plasticity and mate limitation on the epidemic potential of a marine ectoparasite. PLoS ONE, 9 (2). e88465. ISSN 1932-6203 (https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088465)
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Abstract
Temperature is hypothesized to contribute to increased pathogenicity and virulence of many marine diseases. The sea louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) is an ectoparasite of salmonids that exhibits strong life-history plasticity in response to temperature; however, the effect of temperature on the epidemiology of this parasite has not been rigorously examined. We used matrix population modelling to examine the influence of temperature on demographic parameters of sea lice parasitizing farmed salmon. Demographically-stochastic population projection matrices were created using parameters from the existing literature on vital rates of sea lice at different fixed temperatures and yearly temperature profiles. In addition, we quantified the effectiveness of a single stage-specific control applied at different times during a year with seasonal temperature changes. We found that the epidemic potential of sea lice increased with temperature due to a decrease in generation time and an increase in the net reproductive rate. In addition, mate limitation constrained population growth more at low temperatures than at high temperatures. Our model predicts that control measures targeting preadults and chalimus are most effective regardless of the temperature. The predictions from this model suggest that temperature can dramatically change vital rates of sea lice and can increase population growth. The results of this study suggest that sea surface temperatures should be considered when choosing salmon farm sites and designing management plans to control sea louse infestations. More broadly, this study demonstrates the utility of matrix population modelling for epidemiological studies.
ORCID iDs
Groner, Maya L., Gettinby, George, Stormoen, Marit, Revie, Crawford W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5018-0340 and Cox, Ruth;-
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Item type: Article ID code: 48932 Dates: DateEvent5 February 2014PublishedSubjects: Science > Mathematics > Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > OceanographyDepartment: University of Strathclyde > University of Strathclyde
Faculty of Science > Mathematics and StatisticsDepositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 11 Jul 2014 11:24 Last modified: 26 Sep 2024 00:38 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/48932