Forecasts of the Scottish economy [March 2003]
Low, Kenneth (2003) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [March 2003]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 28 (1). pp. 15-21. ISSN 0306-7866
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Abstract
The world economy weakened towards the end of 2002 and at the start of 2003. Geopolitical tensions and substantial falls in equity markets were the two main sources of concern. Economic performance for 2002 is significantly poorer than most economic commentators estimated. The situation in Iraq now appears to be more certain. While conflict is never a sought after outcome (if there is a short and clearly resolved conflict) then it will clear most of the uncertainty that has persisted in world markets. There are signs of recovery in the US and some emerging signs of recover y in the Euro Area. Germany is a drag on Euro Area growth in the short-run. Japan remains weak but at least it is improving. There also appears to be a firm commitment by the Japanese government to eliminating non-per forming loans (NPLs). Global inflationary pressures are relatively muted. The outlook for world growth is promising. The recovery is likely to boost world trade and strengthens domestic demand.
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Item type: Article ID code: 47089 Dates: DateEventMarch 2003PublishedSubjects: Social Sciences > Economic Theory Department: Strathclyde Business School > Economics
Strathclyde Business School > Fraser of Allander InstituteDepositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 04 Mar 2014 10:14 Last modified: 06 Sep 2024 00:39 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/47089