Outlook and appraisal [February 2009]

Ashcroft, Brian (2009) Outlook and appraisal [February 2009]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 32 (3). pp. 4-17. ISSN 2046-5378

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Since we last reported in October there has been a considerable deterioration in the actual and forecast performance of all the major economies. In October we considered there was a ‘high probability’ that Scotland would go into recession in 2009. Now, we are certain that not only is Scotland currently in recession but that the recession looks likely to be as severe as that in the 1980s and could even be worse.