Fifty years of probabilistic decision analysis : a view from the UK
Morton, Alec and Phillips, Lawrence D (2009) Fifty years of probabilistic decision analysis : a view from the UK. Journal of the Operational Research Society. S33-S40.
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In 1959, LJ Savage attended a statistics seminar held in his honour at the University of London, confronting those present with a radically different approach to reasoning about uncertainty. Britain was well placed to respond to Savage, as very similar ideas had been laid out in Britain a full generation earlier, and in the next few decades, British and British-based practitioners and researchers championed a collection of techniques for thinking quantitatively about uncertainty (which we call 'Probabilistic Decision Analysis'), developing practice, and contributing to theoretic knowledge about the underlying psychology and mathematics. This effectively turned a collection of purely theoretical ideas into a practical modelling technology. In the first decade of the 21st century, some 50 years on, these ideas have made a noticeable influence on practice and thinking in various domains, but numerous challenges still remain.
| Author(s): | Morton, Alec and Phillips, Lawrence D | Item type: | Article |
|---|---|
| ID code: | 45450 |
| Keywords: | fifty years, probabilistic decision analysis, UK, , , history of OR, OR, decision analysis, probability, risk, Management. Industrial Management, Strategy and Management |
| Subjects: | Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management |
| Department: | Strathclyde Business School > Management Science |
| Depositing user: | Pure Administrator |
| Date deposited: | 28 Oct 2013 18:01 |
| Last modified: | 30 Jan 2019 16:28 |
| URI: | https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/45450 |
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