Expert judgment study for placement ladder bowtie

Kurowicka, D and Cooke, R and Goossens, Louis and Ale, B (2008) Expert judgment study for placement ladder bowtie. Safety Science, 46 (6). pp. 921-934. (

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Statistics of occupational accidents motivated a large project commissioned by The Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment in The Netherlands to reduce risks for workers. The model of an accident is represented by a so-called “bowtie” diagram. To quantify bowties different sources of data were used. Quantification was mostly data driven, however as it is often the case the data are incomplete and then the expert judgment is employed. The first bowtie model has just been completed and this paper reports results of expert judgment study for this model.