The offshore access problem and turbine availability : probabilistic modelling of expected delays to repairs

Feuchtwang, Julian and Infield, David (2009) The offshore access problem and turbine availability : probabilistic modelling of expected delays to repairs. In: European Offshore Wind Conference 2009, 2009-09-14 - 2009-09-16.

[img]
Preview
PDF
JFeuchtwang_Paper_for_European_Offshore_Wind_Conference_2009a.pdf
Accepted Author Manuscript

Download (205kB)| Preview

    Abstract

    Difficulty of access due to adverse sea-state can cause significant delays to operation and maintenance on offshore wind farms, resulting in lost energy production and increased cost of energy. This paper presents a method of expressing such delays in closed form, in terms of a probabilistic event tree and Weibull parameters of the ‘storm’ and ‘calm’ duration distributions. Coupled with turbine subsystem reliability statistics and threshold sea states for access, annual expected delays and turbine availability can be estimated using a simple spreadsheet, without lengthy Monte Carlo simulations, as well as their sensitivities to site, turbine and access parameters.