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Building prior distributions to support Bayesian reliability growth modelling using expert judgement

Walls, Lesley and Quigley, John (2001) Building prior distributions to support Bayesian reliability growth modelling using expert judgement. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 74 (2). pp. 117-128. ISSN 0951-8320

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Abstract

A sound methodology for the elicitation of subjective expert judgement is a pre-requisite for specifying prior distributions for the parameters of reliability growth models. In this paper, we describe an elicitation process that is developed to ensure valid data are collected by suggesting how possible bias might be identified and managed. As well as discussing the theory underpinning the elicitation process, the paper gives practical guidance concerning its implementation during reliability growth testing. The collection of subjective data using the proposed elicitation process is embedded within a Bayesian reliability growth modelling framework and reflections upon its practical use are described.

Item type: Article
ID code: 4372
Keywords: bayesian analysis, reliability growth models, elicitation, prior probability distributions, statistics, Management. Industrial Management, Risk Management, Statistics, Applied Mathematics, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Subjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management
Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Risk Management
Social Sciences > Statistics
Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science
Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
Date deposited: 23 Oct 2007
Last modified: 12 Sep 2018 19:13
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URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/4372
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