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A time-series analysis of UK annual and quarterly construction output data (1955-1995)

Agapiou, Andrew and Notman, David and Flanagan, Roger and Norman, George (1998) A time-series analysis of UK annual and quarterly construction output data (1955-1995). Construction Management and Economics, 16 (4). pp. 409-416. ISSN 0144-6193

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United Kingdom construction output makes a vitally important contribution to the gross domestic product of the UK economy. Nevertheless, despite the obvious importance of UK construction, very little is known about the output behaviour of the industry. This paper endeavours to redress the imbalance by analysing the post-war time-series behaviour of annual and quarterly UK construction output. The primary technique of analysis is to estimate an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model of UK construction output. Such a model proxies the stochastic or random process that underlies UK construction output data. Also, a review is given of the methodology of estimation and diagnostic checking of ARIMA models in the context of UK construction output, together with ex-post and ex-ante forecasts of UK construction output using the estimated ARIMA models.