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Reframing industry boundaries for structural advantage; the role of scenario planning

Burt, G. and van der Heijden, K. (2002) Reframing industry boundaries for structural advantage; the role of scenario planning. In: Scenarios in Business. John Wiley & Sons Inc., United Kingdom, pp. 223-232. ISBN 0470843829

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Abstract

The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight. There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios planning in business. Scenario Planning in Business and its companion, Scenarios in Public Policy are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning.