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Sensitivity analysis of the CREAM method for Human Reliability

Bedford, T.J. and Bayley, Clare (2008) Sensitivity analysis of the CREAM method for Human Reliability. Working paper. University of Strathclyde. (Unpublished)

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    Abstract

    This paper reports a sensitivity analysis of the CREAM HRA method. We consider three different aspects: the difference between the outputs of the Basic and Extended methods, on the same HRA scenario; the variability in outputs through the choices made for common performance conditions (CPCs); the variability in outputs through the assignment of choices for cognitive function failures (CFFs). We discuss the problem of interpreting categories when applying the method, and discuss also how dependence is modelled with the approach. We show that the control mode intervals used in the Basic method are too narrow to be consistent with the Extended method. This motivates a new screening method that gives improved accuracy with respect to the Basic method, in the sense that (on average) halves the uncertainty associated with the Basic method.

    Item type: Monograph (Working paper)
    ID code: 7456
    Keywords: sensitivity analysis, CREAM HRA, human reliability, management science, Management. Industrial Management
    Subjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management
    Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science
    Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
    Date Deposited: 29 Jan 2009 14:03
    Last modified: 28 Dec 2013 07:10
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/7456

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