Picture of scraped petri dish

Scrape below the surface of Strathprints...

Explore world class Open Access research by researchers at the University of Strathclyde, a leading technological university.

Explore

Sensitivity analysis of the CREAM method for Human Reliability

Bedford, T.J. and Bayley, Clare (2008) Sensitivity analysis of the CREAM method for Human Reliability. Working paper. University of Strathclyde. (Unpublished)

[img]
Preview
PDF (strathprints007456.pdf)
strathprints007456.pdf

Download (202kB) | Preview

Abstract

This paper reports a sensitivity analysis of the CREAM HRA method. We consider three different aspects: the difference between the outputs of the Basic and Extended methods, on the same HRA scenario; the variability in outputs through the choices made for common performance conditions (CPCs); the variability in outputs through the assignment of choices for cognitive function failures (CFFs). We discuss the problem of interpreting categories when applying the method, and discuss also how dependence is modelled with the approach. We show that the control mode intervals used in the Basic method are too narrow to be consistent with the Extended method. This motivates a new screening method that gives improved accuracy with respect to the Basic method, in the sense that (on average) halves the uncertainty associated with the Basic method.